Why Judging Talent is Harder and less Necessary Than Most Think (and in some cases, may even be harmful)
To paraphrase many who came before me, “I know a hundred times as much as I did when I was young, and now I THINK I know one one-hundredth as much.” Oftentimes, the most fervent believers are those who once believed the opposite. When I was younger, I thought I was talented at many things, including JUDGING talent. I now believe neither. Among the many misbeliefs and delusions I’ve reconciled over the years, they are among the most influential. Judgment and competence are often related but not the same. Judgment is the ability to make decisions with limited information, especially in areas where one is not trained or experienced. Competence usually pertains to areas where one's understanding and proficiency have been given ample opportunity for unambiguous corrective feedback. For reasons expounded at length in other posts (especially in part three of the ER intro ), ER has a low opinion on the reliability of human judgment. It teaches that (it's wise to believe) tha...